Step 1 Predictor: Calculate Your Pass Probability
Step 1 went pass/fail in January 2022. The number on your NBME no longer maps to a three-digit transcript score — but it still maps to a pass probability. Find yours below.
Pass/fail does not mean low-stakes
Failing Step 1 stays on your transcript permanently and is visible to every residency program you apply to. A pass with no margin and a fail look similar on paper — but a comfortable pass-rate prediction protects you from a bad test-day surprise.
Run the Step 1 calculator
Pick Step 1 in the form below, add your NBME / UWSA / Free 120 scores, and submit. The result shows your pass probability and equated three-digit score.
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A worked example
Say you sat three assessments in your final three weeks: NBME 30 = 201, NBME 31 = 197, and UWSA 1 = 208. The model equates each form to a common scale, weights your most recent results more heavily, and reports a range rather than a single number — so one slightly lower form does not sink the estimate. This profile lands in the ~95–98% pass band: a comfortable pass with margin, where the right move is to maintain rather than cram.
Illustrative only — your own result depends on your exact forms, dates, and how closely they cluster. See the methodology for the assumptions behind the model.
Step 1 pass-probability bands
Independent model bands for planning only. Step 1 is pass/fail; use the probability and readiness guidance in your official CBSSA report as the primary source.
Why Step 1 still matters even when pass/fail
Some students hear "pass/fail" and assume the exam is no longer high-stakes. That is wrong. Here is why.
Failing has consequences
A Step 1 fail appears on your USMLE transcript permanently. Roughly 50% of failers don't match into competitive specialties even after passing on retake.
Step 2 CK is now the screening score
Programs use Step 2 CK as the primary numeric filter. But a Step 1 fail still flags applicants in the same way a low GPA does.
IMGs face higher scrutiny
International medical graduates without a US clinical year are especially affected — Step 1 first-attempt result is one of the strongest filtering signals.
What to do based on your prediction
≥ 95% pass probability: Stop adding study time. Sleep, exercise, and run two random UWorld blocks a day for calibration. Reschedule is unnecessary.
85-95% pass probability: One more NBME 7-10 days out. If trajectory is flat, take the exam. If it's dropping, push 1-2 weeks.
65-85% pass probability: Move the test back 2-3 weeks. Use a structured 14-day plan: identify your three weakest subjects, do 80 questions/day in those, and re-take NBME 31 or 32.
< 65% pass probability: Move the test back at least 4 weeks. Switch to content-review mode: First Aid + Sketchy + Pathoma. Do not just grind UWorld.
All recommendations assume you have ≥ 3 weeks of dedicated remaining. If less, be more conservative.
Step 1 predictor FAQs
What is a passing score on Step 1 now?+
Step 1 is pass/fail. There is no three-digit score on your transcript anymore. NBME uses a single internal threshold (around 196 equated) — if you cross it, you pass.
How predictive is my NBME score for passing Step 1?+
Very. Students scoring ≥ 200 on NBME 30, 31, or 32 within two weeks of test day have a > 95% pass rate. Below 180, the pass rate drops below 60%.
Does the calculator account for the new pass/fail format?+
Yes. Our model converts your inputs to an equated three-digit score, compares it to the current pass threshold, then outputs a pass probability with a 95% confidence interval.
Should I take Step 1 if my latest NBME is below 200?+
It depends on your timeline and trajectory. If three NBMEs in a row are below 200 and you have not improved despite full dedicated, push the date. If you went from 175 → 198 in four weeks, you are on the trajectory to pass.
Can I retake Step 1 if I fail?+
Yes, up to four attempts total per the latest USMLE policy. But each fail appears on your transcript and is visible to residency programs. Plan to pass on attempt one.
Know your Step 1 pass margin
Three NBMEs plus your latest UWSA gives you a tight prediction. Run yours now — free, no signup.